The Grand National – is it a lottery?

The Grand National is drenched in drama. There is more excitement crammed in to the time it takes these magnificent animals to gallop round four and a half miles than there is in an entire decade of Eastenders episodes.

The combination of the extreme distance, savage fences, massive crowd, huge publicity and quality thoroughbreds makes a cocktail that is hard to beat in equine circles. The Gold Cup gets a higher quality of horse, the Champion Hurdle attracts faster horses but the Grand National plays host to the hardiest creatures imaginable.

Not only do they have to travel around a course that is longer than any other in the racing calendar, but they have to jump fences that the RSPCA suffer year-long nightmares over while running amongst the biggest field that gets assembled for any race throughout the year.   

The result year in year out is a ten minute cavalry charge where runners both fancied or not may fall at the first, get carried out by a loose horse or get lucky and come out on top, thus inking their name in to the history books.

Mon Mome, second left, on his way to victory in 2009

 

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The first horse ever to win this brutal test in 1839 was called Lottery. I am sure at the time the witnesses did not expect the victor’s name to become so appropriate but the race is these days seen by most to be exactly that – a lottery, a game of chance.

However, despite all that I have just written, I believe that there is often a clue to the winner’s identity hidden deep within the labyrinth that is the Grand National form guide.

In recent years, the winner of this brilliant race has tended to be a horse of a slightly higher quality than before. This is a result of a few factors, one being that the handicapper has stopped punishing all of the classy horses by weighting them up to the eyeballs and thus completely writing off their chances before the start, that is if their connections actually bothered entering the race.

This now means that horses capable of running into the frame in the Gold Cup, e.g. Mon Mome or Hedgehunter, Grand National winners in 2009 and 2005 respectively, take their place under the starter’s orders and try their luck around this unique course.

Along with an ability to jump well, weight is probably the most crucial factor to winning this stern test of a horse’s stamina and athleticism. Traditionally, if a horse is carrying more than 11st, it is going to struggle. Since the legendary Red Rum (12st and 11st 8lbs) and L’Escargot (11st 3lbs) did it three times between 1974-7, only three horses have lugged round more than 11st to victory.

This suggests that it is wise to look further down the handicap for the likely victor. Anything carrying less than 11st 3lbs has a chance but I am usually only really tempted to back something if it has less than 11st on it’s back. 

There is always plenty of drama during Aintree's showpiece

 

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This is only for the winner though. Plenty of contenders have put in sterling efforts with bags of weight on board to come in the frame and that is where classy horses with just a bit too much to do often end up. That is where I think last year’s winner, Mon Mome will find himself at the close of play on Saturday – a gallant second, third or fourth.

So I believe a decent, classy and proven performer on the bigger stage has a decent chance of taking the spoils this Saturday afternoon. But before I launch in to my fancies, I just want to add that anything can happen in the Grand National and so please follow these selections with a degree of caution so you can’t blame me if all five are brought down by a faller at the first fence!

Here are the entries that I think tick the most boxes:

1. State of Play – 10st 11lbs

The 2006 Hennessy winner proved last year that he enjoys the test that Aintree provides by coming a gallant fourth. He has three pounds less this time round and is arriving in Liverpool fresh as a daisy which is the way he likes it. His record when fresh is superb and the fact that he has been there, done that is a huge plus in my book. A very solid bet.

2. Big Fella Thanks – 10st 12lbs

Ruby Walsh’s mount may well be the one to end champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ horror record in the race. He broke all the trends last year when coming sixth as a novice and that experience will certainly stand him in good stead. He has decent form having won his latest start at Newbury while he came second in a high quality race around the New Year at the same track which subsequent Gold Cup fourth, Carruthers, won. Being favourite is often a poisoned chalice but this one has all the ingredients to be there at the Elbow when it matters.

3. Irish Raptor – 10st 7lbs

Gold Cup-winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ first string has a mixed record over the big fences but his poor efforts have tended to come on heavy ground while he has won and come second in Topham Chases (over the National fences) on sound surfaces which it is due to be on the big day.  He comes from a stable in top form, is being ridden by a jockey (Paddy Brennan) who’s confidence is through the roof and should be able to put his experience to good use.

4. My Will – 11st 2lbs

Last year’s third has seemed a bit off-colour this term but then again, he hardly lit the world up before his impressive performances at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. He came fifth in the 2009 Gold Cup while he came seventh in this year’s renewal suggesting that he is running to approximately the same level. The fact that he is carrying two pounds less this time is not a massive factor but is enough to think he might be in the hunt for a shot at glory or at least a contender for a place.

5. Arbor Supreme – 10st 8lbs

This fairly unexposed eight-year-old has run well in a number of handicaps in Ireland this year for Willie Mullins and looks certain to relish the marathon trip. He has won over 3m 5f and 3m 6f and has shown no sign of slowing on both occasions. He has been campaigned mainly on heavy ground this term and looks like the sort to prefer a sounder surface. He has the talented young jockey, Paul Townend, on board and in being trained by Mullins, has a master of his art in charge who knows exactly what it takes to win the National after he won with Hedgehunter in 2005. He has never run over the National fences which is a potential negative as many just don’t take to it but he looks an ideal type apart from that.