Festival Fancies

Monkerhostin in the 2004 Coral Cup was my first Cheltenham winner. He flew up the hill to win at 13/2 for Phillip Hobbs and the lovable Richard Johnson. I watched the race on my own in the tv room in my house at school, screaming him home like a mad man before skipping down to the bookies on the sly to pick up my winnings – a cool £25. It was a thrill and a half.

I thought at the age of 17 and only one or two Cheltenham bets down that I had cracked this gambling game – how naïve!

Betting at the Festival is a precarious business. Many get caught in the classic trap of backing a couple of losers and trying to gamble their way out of trouble. Considering it is a four-day meet, this is dicing with death so discipline is the name of the game.

Having said that, I have seen many have the same thrill as I have been lucky enough to have a few times. My good friend Harry Stein’s legendary pick of Katchit in the 2008 Champion Hurdle led to a monumental celebration in the bars of Newcastle.

The big question is, will the readers of this blog be filling the till of the local boozer after backing one or heaven forbid more winners this week? I certainly hope so. What I will say is be careful.

This is the most competitive week of racing you could hope to see and almost every runner in every race can win. Granted, some horses are more equal than others and stand a better chance of glory than others but so often a relative unknown comes down the blind side at 33/1 to land the spoils to the chagrin of the gambling public who then claim they circled that runner in their race card only to have plumped for a more celebrated alternative.

It is a case of doing your research and sticking to your guns. If your technique is based on following your favourite named horse or your favourite colours then fair enough – whatever works for you is fine. If you enjoy the info like me then buy Monday’s Racing Post and do your worst to navigate your way through the maze of stats in front of you. What is not debatable is that it is slightly more interesting if you have a financial interest in a race…!

So, here are a few of my tips for the week. I hope they bring you fortune…

I have also outlined some of the key things to look for when picking a Cheltenham winner. I wish you all the best of luck – we will all need it in the annual battle against the bookies that is the Cheltenham Festival.

Top five things to look for:

1. Jumping – this is more important round Cheltenham than anywhere else as the fences and hurdles are stiffer than anywhere else. If your pick is a dodgy jumper then don’t expect to be entering the winner’s enclosure any time soon.
2. Festival Form – time and again runners who have won or ran well in the Festival before come back for more. It is as good a signpost as any as the races are so competitive that to be able to say my nag has been there and done it is a nice safety net. Beware the improvers though…
3. Ground – this is always important. The going is good to soft which is pretty much perfect. Some like it faster while others love the mud – check the weather and pick accordingly.
4. Bottle – this is hard to tell as some don’t know they have bottle until they are in a dog-fight up the legendary Cheltenham hill. But, listen to the commentators and read the papers, they will be able to tell you which horses like a ding-dong tussle and which are chokers.
5. Trainer / Jockey – obviously this is key. Some are better than others. Those riders with a fine record are Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, AP McCoy, Richard Johnson, Paul Carberry and Paddy Brennan especially. There are others too but these stand out. Successful trainers who always seem to farm winners are Paul Nicholls (not good in handicap chases though) Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs. Venetia Williams is a good one for outsiders in the handicaps as are Donald McCain and Ferdy Murphy.

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander

Unusually, the reigning champion is the horse in the race receiving the most attention – this has not been the case this year in the week’s blue riband event to be run on the Festival’s final day, Friday. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge, a most impressive winner of this last year when he gate-crashed the Kauto Star / Denman party, has flown under the radar as NTD has wrapped him up in cotton wool, giving him only one run all season. He won the Betfair at Haydock in November with relative ease and has since been off the course. There is no reason to think that he is anything less than the horse he was last year and with question marks over all the other runners, the biggest prize of the National Hunt season looks to be at his mercy.

He jumps, travels and loves the course having won six times there. He has a jockey who knows his way round in Paddy Brennan and is good value at 7/2.

Ryanair Chase – J’y Vole

This one has come a bit out of left field but in an under-par renewal of this 2m5f chase set to be run on Thursday it is primed for a slightly less fancied runner. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old was third in this last year having been badly hampered in running and could go close again. She has not had the greatest season in the world but is consistent and unlike some of the other runners, loves the 2m5f trip. She is 8/1 to take this back to Ireland.

This race could go anywhere though so if you want a real outsider, have a look at Hey Big Spender. He is running at 40/1 and hails from the yard of Colin Tizzard who’s horses are on fire at the moment.

Champion Hurdle – Menorah

I, like many, have been a fan of Menorah ever since he out battled Get Me Out Of Here in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. Hobbs’ six-year-old ticks a lot of the boxes needed for a champion hurdler. He jumps, travels and has guts which he showed last season. The negative is that no horse has won the Champion the year after winning the Supreme since the brilliant Bula in 1971. However, rules are meant to be broken and with the shock withdrawel of favourite Binocular over the weekend, this race has opened up a little bit at Menorah could do the double at 4/1. There are dangers everywhere though. Peddlers Cross is unbeaten in eight and has Festival form while if Hurricane Fly likes the track then everyone could be in trouble. An intriguing contest.

There are so many others with Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme looking good for a big run in the Festival curtain raiser. Thousand Stars could run well at long odds in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, Skipper’s Brig is a firm favourite of one of the Racing Post’s top tipsters, James Pyman, and could go well in the third race on Tuesday, the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase.

There are just so many options that I could be here all day discussing it so I thought I would give you those three as a starter for ten. See how they go and if they run well then why not dip your toe in the water for more…Just promise me one thing – be careful!

The Grand National – is it a lottery?

The Grand National is drenched in drama. There is more excitement crammed in to the time it takes these magnificent animals to gallop round four and a half miles than there is in an entire decade of Eastenders episodes.

The combination of the extreme distance, savage fences, massive crowd, huge publicity and quality thoroughbreds makes a cocktail that is hard to beat in equine circles. The Gold Cup gets a higher quality of horse, the Champion Hurdle attracts faster horses but the Grand National plays host to the hardiest creatures imaginable.

Not only do they have to travel around a course that is longer than any other in the racing calendar, but they have to jump fences that the RSPCA suffer year-long nightmares over while running amongst the biggest field that gets assembled for any race throughout the year.   

The result year in year out is a ten minute cavalry charge where runners both fancied or not may fall at the first, get carried out by a loose horse or get lucky and come out on top, thus inking their name in to the history books.

Mon Mome, second left, on his way to victory in 2009

 

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The first horse ever to win this brutal test in 1839 was called Lottery. I am sure at the time the witnesses did not expect the victor’s name to become so appropriate but the race is these days seen by most to be exactly that – a lottery, a game of chance.

However, despite all that I have just written, I believe that there is often a clue to the winner’s identity hidden deep within the labyrinth that is the Grand National form guide.

In recent years, the winner of this brilliant race has tended to be a horse of a slightly higher quality than before. This is a result of a few factors, one being that the handicapper has stopped punishing all of the classy horses by weighting them up to the eyeballs and thus completely writing off their chances before the start, that is if their connections actually bothered entering the race.

This now means that horses capable of running into the frame in the Gold Cup, e.g. Mon Mome or Hedgehunter, Grand National winners in 2009 and 2005 respectively, take their place under the starter’s orders and try their luck around this unique course.

Along with an ability to jump well, weight is probably the most crucial factor to winning this stern test of a horse’s stamina and athleticism. Traditionally, if a horse is carrying more than 11st, it is going to struggle. Since the legendary Red Rum (12st and 11st 8lbs) and L’Escargot (11st 3lbs) did it three times between 1974-7, only three horses have lugged round more than 11st to victory.

This suggests that it is wise to look further down the handicap for the likely victor. Anything carrying less than 11st 3lbs has a chance but I am usually only really tempted to back something if it has less than 11st on it’s back. 

There is always plenty of drama during Aintree's showpiece

 

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This is only for the winner though. Plenty of contenders have put in sterling efforts with bags of weight on board to come in the frame and that is where classy horses with just a bit too much to do often end up. That is where I think last year’s winner, Mon Mome will find himself at the close of play on Saturday – a gallant second, third or fourth.

So I believe a decent, classy and proven performer on the bigger stage has a decent chance of taking the spoils this Saturday afternoon. But before I launch in to my fancies, I just want to add that anything can happen in the Grand National and so please follow these selections with a degree of caution so you can’t blame me if all five are brought down by a faller at the first fence!

Here are the entries that I think tick the most boxes:

1. State of Play – 10st 11lbs

The 2006 Hennessy winner proved last year that he enjoys the test that Aintree provides by coming a gallant fourth. He has three pounds less this time round and is arriving in Liverpool fresh as a daisy which is the way he likes it. His record when fresh is superb and the fact that he has been there, done that is a huge plus in my book. A very solid bet.

2. Big Fella Thanks – 10st 12lbs

Ruby Walsh’s mount may well be the one to end champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ horror record in the race. He broke all the trends last year when coming sixth as a novice and that experience will certainly stand him in good stead. He has decent form having won his latest start at Newbury while he came second in a high quality race around the New Year at the same track which subsequent Gold Cup fourth, Carruthers, won. Being favourite is often a poisoned chalice but this one has all the ingredients to be there at the Elbow when it matters.

3. Irish Raptor – 10st 7lbs

Gold Cup-winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ first string has a mixed record over the big fences but his poor efforts have tended to come on heavy ground while he has won and come second in Topham Chases (over the National fences) on sound surfaces which it is due to be on the big day.  He comes from a stable in top form, is being ridden by a jockey (Paddy Brennan) who’s confidence is through the roof and should be able to put his experience to good use.

4. My Will – 11st 2lbs

Last year’s third has seemed a bit off-colour this term but then again, he hardly lit the world up before his impressive performances at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. He came fifth in the 2009 Gold Cup while he came seventh in this year’s renewal suggesting that he is running to approximately the same level. The fact that he is carrying two pounds less this time is not a massive factor but is enough to think he might be in the hunt for a shot at glory or at least a contender for a place.

5. Arbor Supreme – 10st 8lbs

This fairly unexposed eight-year-old has run well in a number of handicaps in Ireland this year for Willie Mullins and looks certain to relish the marathon trip. He has won over 3m 5f and 3m 6f and has shown no sign of slowing on both occasions. He has been campaigned mainly on heavy ground this term and looks like the sort to prefer a sounder surface. He has the talented young jockey, Paul Townend, on board and in being trained by Mullins, has a master of his art in charge who knows exactly what it takes to win the National after he won with Hedgehunter in 2005. He has never run over the National fences which is a potential negative as many just don’t take to it but he looks an ideal type apart from that.

Betting at Cheltenham

The Festival is soon upon us. From Tuesday 16th March for four days, the greatest horse racing meeting on the planet will be on show from the peerless Prestbury Park, Cheltenham.

This is the culmination of the National Hunt calendar for jockeys, trainers, owners and punters alike. As a result, everything is aimed towards it. Jockeys aim to be fit and flying, trainers aim their charges towards it from the start of the season and punters look to put the knowledge they have accumulated over the previous seven months to good use.

It is easy to get carried away with the Cheltenham Festival. I mean this not in terms of the spectacle, which is unmatched in the Sport of Kings, but from a punting perspective. It is better to treat it like any other meeting of the year and not over-complicate matters.

Like every other meeting, there are a number of categories that you should be investigating when looking to back a horse at this meeting. They are: 

1. Course form
2. Jockey  / Trainer form
3. Ground form
4. Distance form (key at Cheltenham due to the steep hill)
5. Jumping prowess (key at Cheltenham due to the stiff fences)

Here are a few pointers in more detail.

Course / Festival form

This is more important at the Cheltenham Festival than at most other tracks because Prestbury Park is unique and has so many idiosyncrasies. Two of these are the very stiff and therefore difficult fences and the perilously steep climb to the finish.

So, look to horses that have a.) won at the track before and b.) won a race at the festival before because winning a race at the course is one thing but winning a race at the most competitive festival of the year is another thing entirely. Being a solid jumper and having the ability to power up that hill are crucial and the best way of knowing whether a horse can do this is by looking to the past. 

Trainers/Jockeys

The Cheltenham Festival gives trainers and jockeys the perfect platform to reach for greatness. Some grab this opportunity with both hands while others struggle. You always want to look at the trainers and jockeys in form but the Festival lights the fires of some more than others and so look to those who have a consistent record of success in Gloucestershire in mid-March and it could prove profitable. Those with the best current records are: 

Winners	Trainer
34	Nicky Henderson
25	Paul Nicholls
18	Edward O’Grady (IRE)
16	Jonjo O’Neill
15	Willie Mullins (IRE)
11	Philip Hobbs
11	Alan King
10	Nigel Twiston-Davies
9	David Elsworth
8	Ferdy Murphy

 

Winners	Jockey
24	Ruby Walsh
21	Tony McCoy
16	Barry Geraghty
15	Robert Thornton
13	Richard Johnson
11	Paul Carberry
8	Timmy Murphy
7	Carl Llewellyn
5	Davy Russell
4	Graham Lee
4	Paddy Brennan
4	Miss Nina Carberry
3	Andrew Thornton
3	Mr J T McNamara

 

Look to the ones with combinations. For example, Ruby Walsh rides for Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins. Barry Geraghty rides for Nicky Henderson and Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton rides for Alan King.

Geraghty has a very impressive record and is a big-race rider so he is certainly one to watch. AP McCoy is always a threat too, no matter what horse he is on. One other to keep an eye on is Paddy Brennan. He rides for Nigel Twiston-Davies and is certainly one of the best jocks around.

Many of these riders and trainers will have horses who will run at very low odds. The trick is to look for the runners trained and ridden by these guys running at seemingly generous odds. An example was last year when American Trilogy ran for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. Their runners usually go off favourite but American Trilogy went off at 33-1 and duly won. Be patient and wait for the working man’s price.

The Irish

They have a spectacular record in some races and it seems logical to follow their runners in those races. Three races with a particularly green tinge to them are:

Supreme Novices Hurdle –  Tue 16^th March. First race of the Festival.

Champion Bumper – Wed 17^th March.

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle – Wed 17^th March