AP, JP and Jonjo – as if the Grand National didn’t have enough drama

Saturday’s Grand National was what sport is all about. I don’t know about all of you but as AP McCoy drove Don’t Push It up Aintree’s famous run-in to secure a vintage victory for owner JP McManus and trainer Jonjo O’Neill, my eyes were welling up, my heart was pounding and my smile was as broad as Becher’s Brook.

It was a victory that everyone could relate to and be delighted with, even if you hadn’t backed the victor. A winner at the 15^th attempt for the greatest jump jockey of them all, at the 22^nd time of asking as a jockey and a trainer for Jonjo, probably the nicest man in racing, and at the 44^th try for JP, the most generous benefactor the sport of kings has ever had. This was box office entertainment. 

Every sporting figure, fixture or event can provoke some kind of response from fans and spectators. Whether it is anger at Tiger Woods’ stray moral compass, relief at Newcastle’s return to top flight football at the first time of asking or jealousy at Phil Mickelson’s short game and wife; sport, like politics, manages to bring people’s feelings to the surface.

However, rarely does a sporting event provoke such a wave of sentiment as the 2010 Grand National. This was primarily because of the people involved.

Sport, like most good things in life, is about the people. Larger than life characters can bring events to life and this is exactly what happened in Liverpool on Saturday afternoon.

England’s 2003 Rugby World Cup win and the 2005 Ashes summer provoked scenes of unbridled joy. This was demonstrated when thousands of people lined the streets of central London to congratulate their conquering heroes.

The reason these events will live long in the memory is not only because of the unbelievable drama that surrounded them but also because of the characters at the centre of the plot. Jonny, Johnno, Freddie, KP. These are the type of guys who take sport to a higher plain and make specific events stand out from the crowd. Saturday’s race was one of these. If racing had the fan-base that those sports had then this race would have been inked in as a classic sporting moment of the past decade.    

I have been at Aintree for five of the past seven Grand Nationals and I can safely say that none of the others even came close to this one in terms of emotion when the winner thundered past the post and was welcomed into the winners’ enclosure. This includes Amberleigh House’s 2004 win which provided Ginger McCain with his historic fourth win in the race after Red Rum’s three triumphs, the last of which was in 1977.

The response was magnificent and this was not just because Don’t Push It had been backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 joint-favourite in the 30 minutes before the race. It was because everyone who knows anything about jump racing knows that the three men primarily responsible for the result are among, if not the, finest and most popular figures around. It was an electric atmosphere in the stands. 

I have been working at the past four Grand National meetings, ferrying around the owners, trainers and jockeys. The days are fairly long, beginning at about 8:30am and finishing at 8pm and so I have clocked a great number of hours and miles in my buggy.

I have had the pleasure of driving around some of the great figures of the sport such as Ruby Walsh and the great figures of other sports such as Sir Alex Ferguson but nothing in all that time has come anywhere near to the hour I was privileged to spend with Jonjo and his family after the big win on Saturday.

The joy in their eyes was clear to see and the way that they spoke about the win made me realise that this is what sport is all about.

It is the way that it can make even the most unemotional of men such as JP McManus shed tears of joy after achieving a lifelong ambition. It is the way that it can reward people for the ridiculous amount of hard work they put in such as AP McCoy. And it is the way that it has a funny habit of rewarding the good guys such as Jonjo O’Neill that makes sport so special.

Saturday’s race was just one example of sport at it’s magical best. If everyone stays fit and we manage to overcome our natural flair for departing the major tournaments on penalties at the quarter-final stage, then we could have another in South Africa come July 11^th courtesy of our footballers. (Fingers crossed).  

These moments should be cherished because they do not come about often.

The Grand National – is it a lottery?

The Grand National is drenched in drama. There is more excitement crammed in to the time it takes these magnificent animals to gallop round four and a half miles than there is in an entire decade of Eastenders episodes.

The combination of the extreme distance, savage fences, massive crowd, huge publicity and quality thoroughbreds makes a cocktail that is hard to beat in equine circles. The Gold Cup gets a higher quality of horse, the Champion Hurdle attracts faster horses but the Grand National plays host to the hardiest creatures imaginable.

Not only do they have to travel around a course that is longer than any other in the racing calendar, but they have to jump fences that the RSPCA suffer year-long nightmares over while running amongst the biggest field that gets assembled for any race throughout the year.   

The result year in year out is a ten minute cavalry charge where runners both fancied or not may fall at the first, get carried out by a loose horse or get lucky and come out on top, thus inking their name in to the history books.

Mon Mome, second left, on his way to victory in 2009

 

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The first horse ever to win this brutal test in 1839 was called Lottery. I am sure at the time the witnesses did not expect the victor’s name to become so appropriate but the race is these days seen by most to be exactly that – a lottery, a game of chance.

However, despite all that I have just written, I believe that there is often a clue to the winner’s identity hidden deep within the labyrinth that is the Grand National form guide.

In recent years, the winner of this brilliant race has tended to be a horse of a slightly higher quality than before. This is a result of a few factors, one being that the handicapper has stopped punishing all of the classy horses by weighting them up to the eyeballs and thus completely writing off their chances before the start, that is if their connections actually bothered entering the race.

This now means that horses capable of running into the frame in the Gold Cup, e.g. Mon Mome or Hedgehunter, Grand National winners in 2009 and 2005 respectively, take their place under the starter’s orders and try their luck around this unique course.

Along with an ability to jump well, weight is probably the most crucial factor to winning this stern test of a horse’s stamina and athleticism. Traditionally, if a horse is carrying more than 11st, it is going to struggle. Since the legendary Red Rum (12st and 11st 8lbs) and L’Escargot (11st 3lbs) did it three times between 1974-7, only three horses have lugged round more than 11st to victory.

This suggests that it is wise to look further down the handicap for the likely victor. Anything carrying less than 11st 3lbs has a chance but I am usually only really tempted to back something if it has less than 11st on it’s back. 

There is always plenty of drama during Aintree's showpiece

 

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This is only for the winner though. Plenty of contenders have put in sterling efforts with bags of weight on board to come in the frame and that is where classy horses with just a bit too much to do often end up. That is where I think last year’s winner, Mon Mome will find himself at the close of play on Saturday – a gallant second, third or fourth.

So I believe a decent, classy and proven performer on the bigger stage has a decent chance of taking the spoils this Saturday afternoon. But before I launch in to my fancies, I just want to add that anything can happen in the Grand National and so please follow these selections with a degree of caution so you can’t blame me if all five are brought down by a faller at the first fence!

Here are the entries that I think tick the most boxes:

1. State of Play – 10st 11lbs

The 2006 Hennessy winner proved last year that he enjoys the test that Aintree provides by coming a gallant fourth. He has three pounds less this time round and is arriving in Liverpool fresh as a daisy which is the way he likes it. His record when fresh is superb and the fact that he has been there, done that is a huge plus in my book. A very solid bet.

2. Big Fella Thanks – 10st 12lbs

Ruby Walsh’s mount may well be the one to end champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ horror record in the race. He broke all the trends last year when coming sixth as a novice and that experience will certainly stand him in good stead. He has decent form having won his latest start at Newbury while he came second in a high quality race around the New Year at the same track which subsequent Gold Cup fourth, Carruthers, won. Being favourite is often a poisoned chalice but this one has all the ingredients to be there at the Elbow when it matters.

3. Irish Raptor – 10st 7lbs

Gold Cup-winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ first string has a mixed record over the big fences but his poor efforts have tended to come on heavy ground while he has won and come second in Topham Chases (over the National fences) on sound surfaces which it is due to be on the big day.  He comes from a stable in top form, is being ridden by a jockey (Paddy Brennan) who’s confidence is through the roof and should be able to put his experience to good use.

4. My Will – 11st 2lbs

Last year’s third has seemed a bit off-colour this term but then again, he hardly lit the world up before his impressive performances at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. He came fifth in the 2009 Gold Cup while he came seventh in this year’s renewal suggesting that he is running to approximately the same level. The fact that he is carrying two pounds less this time is not a massive factor but is enough to think he might be in the hunt for a shot at glory or at least a contender for a place.

5. Arbor Supreme – 10st 8lbs

This fairly unexposed eight-year-old has run well in a number of handicaps in Ireland this year for Willie Mullins and looks certain to relish the marathon trip. He has won over 3m 5f and 3m 6f and has shown no sign of slowing on both occasions. He has been campaigned mainly on heavy ground this term and looks like the sort to prefer a sounder surface. He has the talented young jockey, Paul Townend, on board and in being trained by Mullins, has a master of his art in charge who knows exactly what it takes to win the National after he won with Hedgehunter in 2005. He has never run over the National fences which is a potential negative as many just don’t take to it but he looks an ideal type apart from that.