This is my idea of a perfect task – pouring over the form and picking out the runners who I think and hope might make 2010 a Festival to remember.
My book has very much been replaced by the Racing Post on the tube over the past week and these are the nags who I think have as good, if not better chance of bringing home the bacon up the Cheltenham hill.
I have divided them up into five bankers and five lively outsiders who I think will run to at least a place at long odds. These are my favourite bets as there is no real skill in picking out an odds-on favourite while it takes a fair amount of time and care to pick a 33/1 winner.
Put them in combinations or go with them on their own. Whatever you do, don’t miss a beat from the glorious Cotswolds countryside this week because this is the Sport of Kings at its finest.
Cheltenham Top 5 Bankers
1. Master Minded 4/5
Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old looks as nailed on as it is possible to be to win his third consecutive Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wednesday). The mount of Ruby Walsh was back to his best last time at Newbury and he loves it around Cheltenham where his jumping and speed really come in to their own. The opposition could come from all quarters but nobody came close to stealing Master Minded’s 2m chasing crown when he was nursing a rib injury earlier this season and it doesn’t look likely that they will do so on Wednesday either. An each-way shot could be Well Chief but more about him later.
2. Big Buck’s 4/7
He has not lost a race since returning to hurdles and last year’s World Hurdle (Thursday) winner has looked as good as ever in his two starts this year, winning both. The drying ground will be to his liking and there seems no reason why he won’t outlast his rivals up the Cheltenham hill, just like last year. The main danger should come from Howard Johnson’s Tidal Bay, an impressive winner of the Cleeve Hurdle round here and a former Arkle winner. Another outsider to consider is Katchit, the 2008 Champion Hurdle winner who recently impressed his trainer Alan King on the gallops. However, Big Buck’s has an incredible engine and should power on up the hill to retain his crown.
3. Tell Massini 4/1
He looks very good for a big run in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Friday). Tom George’s 4-1 favourite is a big, powerful sort who has stamina in abundance and so the 3m trip should not trouble him. There is a decent field lining up including Restless Harry and Willie Mullins’ Fionnegas who chased home Dunguib (odds-on favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) last time but Tell Massini has won his last four including two Grade Twos at Cheltenham so should take some stopping.
4. Tranquil Sea 4/1
If any Irish trainer knows what it takes to win at the Festival then it is Edward O’Grady. He has won 18 races over the years and Tranquil Sea could easily make it 19. The Ryanair Chase (Thursday) is an incredibly competitive race but the eight-year-old has looked every inch the sort to enjoy the 2m 5f trip this year. He has already won and come second in two leading handicaps round this course, winning the Paddy Power in November over course and distance. He is also in the first three in the betting (he is a general 4-1) which seems a prerequisite in this race. His main rival looks to be Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin while double festival winner Voy Por Ustedes could easily turn back the clock with a big run at his favourite track.
5. Voler La Vedette 9/4
The second favourite for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (Tuesday) looks up against it at first glance with last year’s winner Quevega at evens to retain her crown but the Colm Murphy trained six-year-old has already destroyed Champion Hurdle favourite Go Native this year and that form looks hard to shy away from. The extra four furlongs of the Mares Hurdle (it’s 2m 4f) could be a potential weakness but she should be able to deliver at 9-4.
Cheltenham Top 5 Outsiders
1. Well Chief 33/1
The injury plagued David Pipe trained 11-year-old is an outrageous price to make the frame in the Champion Chase on Wednesday. He came second in this last year after a two-year spell on the sidelines through injury and has looked as consistent as ever this term, even having Master Minded back in third round here before Christmas. He won the Arkle in 2004 and came second in this race the following year. He loves the course, loves the Festival and has been given a break as he goes best fresh. This could be a great leg of an each-way treble.
2. Katchit 25/1
Luckily I got on board this former Champion Hurdle winner before Alan King said that he had just completed his best piece of work for two years and I’m glad I did as his odds have dropped from 33s for the World Hurdle on Thursday. He is another who loves the Festival, having won the 2007 Triumph Hurdle and the 2008 Champion Hurdle. His record at the track is five from nine and he is sure to give you a good run for your money as he is a gutsy performer up the hill.
3. Advisor 12/1
That rare thing, a Paul Nicholls trained runner ridden by Ruby Walsh (24 Festival winners) at a working mans price. He runs in Friday’s Triumph Hurdle and looks set to be there or thereabouts. He was an average runner on the flat for Michael Bell but has come in to his own over the smaller obstacles in two runs for the Ditcheat team, winning both at Newbury and Ascot. There seems to be plenty of others with a shot but Advisor is the real value in the race.
4. Fighting Chance 33/1
Richard Lee’s outsider recently hacked up by 17 lengths at Leicester and looks all set for a big run in the Festival finale, the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Friday). His trainer has only sent 16 runners to the Festival since 1996 but has had a 7/1 winner and places at 66/1 and 200/1 so he is not to be sniffed at. The lightly raced ten-year-old has a very healthy recent record after winning his last three and could be a profitable way to finish the meeting.
5. Imperial Commander 10/1
Last year’s Ryanair winner looks the most likely to spoil the Kauto Star / Denman party in Friday’s Gold Cup and at odds of 10s, could very easily form part of a trifecta (first three home) or an each-way double or treble. He was pipped to the post by the narrowest of margins by Kauto over 3m at Haydock earlier this season, when many thought he had got his nose in front. This went some way to proving his doubters wrong regarding his stamina issues. His lacklustre performance in the King George at Kempton can be forgiven as it was on a flat, right-handed course which does not suit him. He has a fine record at both Cheltenham and the Festival itself while trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies operates locally.
BIG RACE BETS
Champion Hurdle – Punjabi 10/1
Champion Chase – 1. Master Minded 4/5, each-way Well Chief 33/1
Ryanair Chase – Tranquil Sea 4/1
World Hurdle – 1. Big Bucks 4/7, 2. Tidal Bay 7/1, 3. Katchit 25/1
Gold Cup – 1. Denman 4/1, 2. Kauto Star 4/5, 3. Imperial Commander 10/1
Jack Travers' Blog 