Festival Fancies

Monkerhostin in the 2004 Coral Cup was my first Cheltenham winner. He flew up the hill to win at 13/2 for Phillip Hobbs and the lovable Richard Johnson. I watched the race on my own in the tv room in my house at school, screaming him home like a mad man before skipping down to the bookies on the sly to pick up my winnings – a cool £25. It was a thrill and a half.

I thought at the age of 17 and only one or two Cheltenham bets down that I had cracked this gambling game – how naïve!

Betting at the Festival is a precarious business. Many get caught in the classic trap of backing a couple of losers and trying to gamble their way out of trouble. Considering it is a four-day meet, this is dicing with death so discipline is the name of the game.

Having said that, I have seen many have the same thrill as I have been lucky enough to have a few times. My good friend Harry Stein’s legendary pick of Katchit in the 2008 Champion Hurdle led to a monumental celebration in the bars of Newcastle.

The big question is, will the readers of this blog be filling the till of the local boozer after backing one or heaven forbid more winners this week? I certainly hope so. What I will say is be careful.

This is the most competitive week of racing you could hope to see and almost every runner in every race can win. Granted, some horses are more equal than others and stand a better chance of glory than others but so often a relative unknown comes down the blind side at 33/1 to land the spoils to the chagrin of the gambling public who then claim they circled that runner in their race card only to have plumped for a more celebrated alternative.

It is a case of doing your research and sticking to your guns. If your technique is based on following your favourite named horse or your favourite colours then fair enough – whatever works for you is fine. If you enjoy the info like me then buy Monday’s Racing Post and do your worst to navigate your way through the maze of stats in front of you. What is not debatable is that it is slightly more interesting if you have a financial interest in a race…!

So, here are a few of my tips for the week. I hope they bring you fortune…

I have also outlined some of the key things to look for when picking a Cheltenham winner. I wish you all the best of luck – we will all need it in the annual battle against the bookies that is the Cheltenham Festival.

Top five things to look for:

1. Jumping – this is more important round Cheltenham than anywhere else as the fences and hurdles are stiffer than anywhere else. If your pick is a dodgy jumper then don’t expect to be entering the winner’s enclosure any time soon.
2. Festival Form – time and again runners who have won or ran well in the Festival before come back for more. It is as good a signpost as any as the races are so competitive that to be able to say my nag has been there and done it is a nice safety net. Beware the improvers though…
3. Ground – this is always important. The going is good to soft which is pretty much perfect. Some like it faster while others love the mud – check the weather and pick accordingly.
4. Bottle – this is hard to tell as some don’t know they have bottle until they are in a dog-fight up the legendary Cheltenham hill. But, listen to the commentators and read the papers, they will be able to tell you which horses like a ding-dong tussle and which are chokers.
5. Trainer / Jockey – obviously this is key. Some are better than others. Those riders with a fine record are Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, AP McCoy, Richard Johnson, Paul Carberry and Paddy Brennan especially. There are others too but these stand out. Successful trainers who always seem to farm winners are Paul Nicholls (not good in handicap chases though) Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs. Venetia Williams is a good one for outsiders in the handicaps as are Donald McCain and Ferdy Murphy.

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander

Unusually, the reigning champion is the horse in the race receiving the most attention – this has not been the case this year in the week’s blue riband event to be run on the Festival’s final day, Friday. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge, a most impressive winner of this last year when he gate-crashed the Kauto Star / Denman party, has flown under the radar as NTD has wrapped him up in cotton wool, giving him only one run all season. He won the Betfair at Haydock in November with relative ease and has since been off the course. There is no reason to think that he is anything less than the horse he was last year and with question marks over all the other runners, the biggest prize of the National Hunt season looks to be at his mercy.

He jumps, travels and loves the course having won six times there. He has a jockey who knows his way round in Paddy Brennan and is good value at 7/2.

Ryanair Chase – J’y Vole

This one has come a bit out of left field but in an under-par renewal of this 2m5f chase set to be run on Thursday it is primed for a slightly less fancied runner. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old was third in this last year having been badly hampered in running and could go close again. She has not had the greatest season in the world but is consistent and unlike some of the other runners, loves the 2m5f trip. She is 8/1 to take this back to Ireland.

This race could go anywhere though so if you want a real outsider, have a look at Hey Big Spender. He is running at 40/1 and hails from the yard of Colin Tizzard who’s horses are on fire at the moment.

Champion Hurdle – Menorah

I, like many, have been a fan of Menorah ever since he out battled Get Me Out Of Here in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. Hobbs’ six-year-old ticks a lot of the boxes needed for a champion hurdler. He jumps, travels and has guts which he showed last season. The negative is that no horse has won the Champion the year after winning the Supreme since the brilliant Bula in 1971. However, rules are meant to be broken and with the shock withdrawel of favourite Binocular over the weekend, this race has opened up a little bit at Menorah could do the double at 4/1. There are dangers everywhere though. Peddlers Cross is unbeaten in eight and has Festival form while if Hurricane Fly likes the track then everyone could be in trouble. An intriguing contest.

There are so many others with Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme looking good for a big run in the Festival curtain raiser. Thousand Stars could run well at long odds in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, Skipper’s Brig is a firm favourite of one of the Racing Post’s top tipsters, James Pyman, and could go well in the third race on Tuesday, the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase.

There are just so many options that I could be here all day discussing it so I thought I would give you those three as a starter for ten. See how they go and if they run well then why not dip your toe in the water for more…Just promise me one thing – be careful!

243 days

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! I am not sure if you have noticed but I have not written a word on this blog for a while, since the 27^th of June 2010 in fact.  I have titled my return in honour of Danny Boyle’s movie starring James Franco. I wish I could say there were similar reasons for my absence but you will be disappointed to hear that I was not stuck in a deserted canyon for three quarters of a year although I have moved to Manchester which some might think is just as much of a test! (Joking Manchester, I love you.)

A lot has happened in the intervening period – I have obviously moved oop north, my brother got engaged and is due to get married to the lovely Jenna next weekend and Chelsea have gone from a world class outfit to a side who couldn’t unlock a door let alone a PL defence.

The world of sport continues to throw up drama and scandal at every opportunity whilst entertaining us royally. This time of year is so rich in sporting spectacles that I am thinking about buying another sky plus package as I am not sure there is enough space on my current planner to house the epic contests on the horizon.

The Six Nations is building towards the potential grand-slam decider between England v France at HQ on Saturday. I don’t think there is anybody who is not looking forward to that.

Chris Ashton is getting praise from every corner in a similar manner to the way another Rugby League convert did a decade ago. Jason Robinson went on to win the game’s greatest prize, the Webb Ellis Trophy (World Cup in layman’s terms). Will the Northampton flyer do the same? Saturday’s game will be a big stepping-stone if Johnno’s men can defeat the defending champions.

Check out this article if you need any pumping up for this tussle – it is probably the best blog you will read all year, apart from this one of course! http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/tomfordyce/2011/02/inside_the_heart_of_a_rugby_in.html

The Premiership continues to astonish with Blackpool beating Spurs this week to keep Chelsea in touching distance of fourth. God bless you Ian Holloway. I have said all year that United won’t win it because they are simply not good enough. I am slowly starting to regret these comments although there is a long way to go with some big games left to play.

This has been a topsy-turvy year for many and it would not shock me one bit if there was at least one more twist in the title race. If the pride of west London are not going to win it (and I don’t mean Fulham before anyone cracks that one…) then I would love it to be a team other than United. Living in Manchester may have got me doing some things differently, such as slating the south’s ability to make a good cup of tea, but it has not endeared me to United – thank the Lord!

The Champions League returned and blew us all away over the past couple of weeks. The AC-Spurs and Arsenal-Barca ties were what knockout football is all about – high quality football drenched in late drama.

Gennarro Gattuso was everything that is good and frankly embarrassing about football. He was very much part of the reason that it was such an intensely fought match but he also reminded us all what a pathetic group footballers are on the whole.

I will be honest, I have slightly fallen out of love with the beautiful game recently. (Chelsea’s horror run had nothing to do with it I might add!) The extraordinary behaviour of players on the pitch is frustrating and bad for the game (diving, challenging the ref etc) but it is players’ immoral conduct off the pitch that leaves a sour taste in the mouth.

Carlos Tevez is a case in point. For some reason he is revered as a great player. He may have scored a few goals since he arrived in England but he has also fallen out with every teammate and manager he has worked alongside which a friend took great pride in listing to me last week.  I am pretty sure he doesn’t mean it to be but his famous celebration of putting a dummy in his mouth after scoring sums up his character quite nicely – petulant and childish, not to mention greedy.

Anyway, rant over!

The third of the many great sporting occasions coming up in the very near future is what is known as ‘the greatest show on turf’. It is of course the Cheltenham Festival. Every year the best horses from Britain, Ireland and France lock horns in four days of Championship racing.

I wrote about this last year and will be doing so again in more detail but please do access the Racing Post’s Cheltenham Festival site on my blogroll for everything you need to know about this year’s Festival.

For all your betting needs please do hold fire as I will be posting my tips on the Festival on March 7^th. In the meantime soak up as much form as you can from the Racing Post and together perhaps we can take the bookies to the cleaners!

Thanks for reading guys. It is good to be back in the blogging game. Keep checking your emails as I will let you know whenever I post a new article. Also, please do subscribe to this blog (scroll down to the email subscription link on the right hand side) and let your friends, family and colleagues know about it.

Boom.

 

My Top Tips for the Cheltenham Festival

This is my idea of a perfect task – pouring over the form and picking out the runners who I think and hope might make 2010 a Festival to remember.

My book has very much been replaced by the Racing Post on the tube over the past week and these are the nags who I think have as good, if not better chance of bringing home the bacon up the Cheltenham hill.

I have divided them up into five bankers and five lively outsiders who I think will run to at least a place at long odds. These are my favourite bets as there is no real skill in picking out an odds-on favourite while it takes a fair amount of time and care to pick a 33/1 winner.

Put them in combinations or go with them on their own. Whatever you do, don’t miss a beat from the glorious Cotswolds countryside this week because this is the Sport of Kings at its finest.

Cheltenham Top 5 Bankers

1. Master Minded   4/5

Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old looks as nailed on as it is possible to be to win his third consecutive Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wednesday). The mount of Ruby Walsh was back to his best last time at Newbury and he loves it around Cheltenham where his jumping and speed really come in to their own.  The opposition could come from all quarters but nobody came close to stealing Master Minded’s 2m chasing crown when he was nursing a rib injury earlier this season and it doesn’t look likely that they will do so on Wednesday either. An each-way shot could be Well Chief but more about him later.

2. Big Buck’s   4/7

He has not lost a race since returning to hurdles and last year’s World Hurdle (Thursday) winner has looked as good as ever in his two starts this year, winning both. The drying ground will be to his liking and there seems no reason why he won’t outlast his rivals up the Cheltenham hill, just like last year. The main danger should come from Howard Johnson’s Tidal Bay, an impressive winner of the Cleeve Hurdle round here and a former Arkle winner. Another outsider to consider is Katchit, the 2008 Champion Hurdle winner who recently impressed his trainer Alan King on the gallops.  However, Big Buck’s has an incredible engine and should power on up the hill to retain his crown.

3. Tell Massini   4/1

He looks very good for a big run in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Friday). Tom George’s 4-1 favourite is a big, powerful sort who has stamina in abundance and so the 3m trip should not trouble him. There is a decent field lining up including Restless Harry and Willie Mullins’ Fionnegas who chased home Dunguib (odds-on favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) last time but Tell Massini has won his last four including two Grade Twos at Cheltenham so should take some stopping.

4. Tranquil Sea   4/1

If any Irish trainer knows what it takes to win at the Festival then it is Edward O’Grady. He has won 18 races over the years and Tranquil Sea could easily make it 19. The Ryanair Chase (Thursday) is an incredibly competitive race but the eight-year-old has looked every inch the sort to enjoy the 2m 5f trip this year.  He has already won and come second in two leading handicaps round this course, winning the Paddy Power in November over course and distance. He is also in the first three in the betting (he is a general 4-1) which seems a prerequisite in this race. His main rival looks to be Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin while double festival winner Voy Por Ustedes could easily turn back the clock with a big run at his favourite track.  

5. Voler La Vedette   9/4

The second favourite for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (Tuesday) looks up against it at first glance with last year’s winner Quevega at evens to retain her crown but the Colm Murphy trained six-year-old has already destroyed Champion Hurdle favourite Go Native this year and that form looks hard to shy away from. The extra four furlongs of the Mares Hurdle (it’s 2m 4f) could be a potential weakness but she should be able to deliver at 9-4.

Cheltenham Top 5 Outsiders

1. Well Chief   33/1

The injury plagued David Pipe trained 11-year-old is an outrageous price to make the frame in the Champion Chase on Wednesday. He came second in this last year after a two-year spell on the sidelines through injury and has looked as consistent as ever this term, even having Master Minded back in third round here before Christmas. He won the Arkle in 2004 and came second in this race the following year. He loves the course, loves the Festival and has been given a break as he goes best fresh. This could be a great leg of an each-way treble.

2. Katchit   25/1

Luckily I got on board this former Champion Hurdle winner before Alan King said that he had just completed his best piece of work for two years and I’m glad I did as his odds have dropped from 33s for the World Hurdle on Thursday.  He is another who loves the Festival, having won the 2007 Triumph Hurdle and the 2008 Champion Hurdle. His record at the track is five from nine and he is sure to give you a good run for your money as he is a gutsy performer up the hill. 

3.   Advisor   12/1

That rare thing, a Paul Nicholls trained runner ridden by Ruby Walsh (24 Festival winners) at a working mans price. He runs in Friday’s Triumph Hurdle and looks set to be there or thereabouts. He was an average runner on the flat for Michael Bell but has come in to his own over the smaller obstacles in two runs for the Ditcheat team, winning both at Newbury and Ascot. There seems to be plenty of others with a shot but Advisor is the real value in the race.

4.   Fighting Chance   33/1

Richard Lee’s outsider recently hacked up by 17 lengths at Leicester and looks all set for a big run in the Festival finale, the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Friday). His trainer has only sent 16 runners to the Festival since 1996 but has had a 7/1 winner and places at 66/1 and 200/1 so he is not to be sniffed at.  The lightly raced ten-year-old has a very healthy recent record after winning his last three and could be a profitable way to finish the meeting.

5. Imperial Commander   10/1

Last year’s Ryanair winner looks the most likely to spoil the Kauto Star / Denman party in Friday’s Gold Cup and at odds of 10s, could very easily form part of a trifecta (first three home) or an each-way double or treble. He was pipped to the post by the narrowest of margins by Kauto over 3m at Haydock earlier this season, when many thought he had got his nose in front. This went some way to proving his doubters wrong regarding his stamina issues. His lacklustre performance in the King George at Kempton can be forgiven as it was on a flat, right-handed course which does not suit him. He has a fine record at both Cheltenham and the Festival itself while trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies operates locally.  

BIG RACE BETS

Champion Hurdle – Punjabi 10/1

Champion Chase – 1. Master Minded 4/5, each-way Well Chief 33/1

Ryanair Chase – Tranquil Sea 4/1

World Hurdle – 1. Big Bucks 4/7, 2. Tidal Bay 7/1, 3. Katchit 25/1

Gold Cup – 1. Denman 4/1, 2. Kauto Star 4/5, 3. Imperial Commander 10/1

Betting at Cheltenham

The Festival is soon upon us. From Tuesday 16th March for four days, the greatest horse racing meeting on the planet will be on show from the peerless Prestbury Park, Cheltenham.

This is the culmination of the National Hunt calendar for jockeys, trainers, owners and punters alike. As a result, everything is aimed towards it. Jockeys aim to be fit and flying, trainers aim their charges towards it from the start of the season and punters look to put the knowledge they have accumulated over the previous seven months to good use.

It is easy to get carried away with the Cheltenham Festival. I mean this not in terms of the spectacle, which is unmatched in the Sport of Kings, but from a punting perspective. It is better to treat it like any other meeting of the year and not over-complicate matters.

Like every other meeting, there are a number of categories that you should be investigating when looking to back a horse at this meeting. They are: 

1. Course form
2. Jockey  / Trainer form
3. Ground form
4. Distance form (key at Cheltenham due to the steep hill)
5. Jumping prowess (key at Cheltenham due to the stiff fences)

Here are a few pointers in more detail.

Course / Festival form

This is more important at the Cheltenham Festival than at most other tracks because Prestbury Park is unique and has so many idiosyncrasies. Two of these are the very stiff and therefore difficult fences and the perilously steep climb to the finish.

So, look to horses that have a.) won at the track before and b.) won a race at the festival before because winning a race at the course is one thing but winning a race at the most competitive festival of the year is another thing entirely. Being a solid jumper and having the ability to power up that hill are crucial and the best way of knowing whether a horse can do this is by looking to the past. 

Trainers/Jockeys

The Cheltenham Festival gives trainers and jockeys the perfect platform to reach for greatness. Some grab this opportunity with both hands while others struggle. You always want to look at the trainers and jockeys in form but the Festival lights the fires of some more than others and so look to those who have a consistent record of success in Gloucestershire in mid-March and it could prove profitable. Those with the best current records are: 

Winners	Trainer
34	Nicky Henderson
25	Paul Nicholls
18	Edward O’Grady (IRE)
16	Jonjo O’Neill
15	Willie Mullins (IRE)
11	Philip Hobbs
11	Alan King
10	Nigel Twiston-Davies
9	David Elsworth
8	Ferdy Murphy

 

Winners	Jockey
24	Ruby Walsh
21	Tony McCoy
16	Barry Geraghty
15	Robert Thornton
13	Richard Johnson
11	Paul Carberry
8	Timmy Murphy
7	Carl Llewellyn
5	Davy Russell
4	Graham Lee
4	Paddy Brennan
4	Miss Nina Carberry
3	Andrew Thornton
3	Mr J T McNamara

 

Look to the ones with combinations. For example, Ruby Walsh rides for Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins. Barry Geraghty rides for Nicky Henderson and Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton rides for Alan King.

Geraghty has a very impressive record and is a big-race rider so he is certainly one to watch. AP McCoy is always a threat too, no matter what horse he is on. One other to keep an eye on is Paddy Brennan. He rides for Nigel Twiston-Davies and is certainly one of the best jocks around.

Many of these riders and trainers will have horses who will run at very low odds. The trick is to look for the runners trained and ridden by these guys running at seemingly generous odds. An example was last year when American Trilogy ran for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. Their runners usually go off favourite but American Trilogy went off at 33-1 and duly won. Be patient and wait for the working man’s price.

The Irish

They have a spectacular record in some races and it seems logical to follow their runners in those races. Three races with a particularly green tinge to them are:

Supreme Novices Hurdle –  Tue 16^th March. First race of the Festival.

Champion Bumper – Wed 17^th March.

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle – Wed 17^th March