Festival Fancies

Monkerhostin in the 2004 Coral Cup was my first Cheltenham winner. He flew up the hill to win at 13/2 for Phillip Hobbs and the lovable Richard Johnson. I watched the race on my own in the tv room in my house at school, screaming him home like a mad man before skipping down to the bookies on the sly to pick up my winnings – a cool £25. It was a thrill and a half.

I thought at the age of 17 and only one or two Cheltenham bets down that I had cracked this gambling game – how naïve!

Betting at the Festival is a precarious business. Many get caught in the classic trap of backing a couple of losers and trying to gamble their way out of trouble. Considering it is a four-day meet, this is dicing with death so discipline is the name of the game.

Having said that, I have seen many have the same thrill as I have been lucky enough to have a few times. My good friend Harry Stein’s legendary pick of Katchit in the 2008 Champion Hurdle led to a monumental celebration in the bars of Newcastle.

The big question is, will the readers of this blog be filling the till of the local boozer after backing one or heaven forbid more winners this week? I certainly hope so. What I will say is be careful.

This is the most competitive week of racing you could hope to see and almost every runner in every race can win. Granted, some horses are more equal than others and stand a better chance of glory than others but so often a relative unknown comes down the blind side at 33/1 to land the spoils to the chagrin of the gambling public who then claim they circled that runner in their race card only to have plumped for a more celebrated alternative.

It is a case of doing your research and sticking to your guns. If your technique is based on following your favourite named horse or your favourite colours then fair enough – whatever works for you is fine. If you enjoy the info like me then buy Monday’s Racing Post and do your worst to navigate your way through the maze of stats in front of you. What is not debatable is that it is slightly more interesting if you have a financial interest in a race…!

So, here are a few of my tips for the week. I hope they bring you fortune…

I have also outlined some of the key things to look for when picking a Cheltenham winner. I wish you all the best of luck – we will all need it in the annual battle against the bookies that is the Cheltenham Festival.

Top five things to look for:

1. Jumping – this is more important round Cheltenham than anywhere else as the fences and hurdles are stiffer than anywhere else. If your pick is a dodgy jumper then don’t expect to be entering the winner’s enclosure any time soon.
2. Festival Form – time and again runners who have won or ran well in the Festival before come back for more. It is as good a signpost as any as the races are so competitive that to be able to say my nag has been there and done it is a nice safety net. Beware the improvers though…
3. Ground – this is always important. The going is good to soft which is pretty much perfect. Some like it faster while others love the mud – check the weather and pick accordingly.
4. Bottle – this is hard to tell as some don’t know they have bottle until they are in a dog-fight up the legendary Cheltenham hill. But, listen to the commentators and read the papers, they will be able to tell you which horses like a ding-dong tussle and which are chokers.
5. Trainer / Jockey – obviously this is key. Some are better than others. Those riders with a fine record are Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, AP McCoy, Richard Johnson, Paul Carberry and Paddy Brennan especially. There are others too but these stand out. Successful trainers who always seem to farm winners are Paul Nicholls (not good in handicap chases though) Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs. Venetia Williams is a good one for outsiders in the handicaps as are Donald McCain and Ferdy Murphy.

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander

Unusually, the reigning champion is the horse in the race receiving the most attention – this has not been the case this year in the week’s blue riband event to be run on the Festival’s final day, Friday. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge, a most impressive winner of this last year when he gate-crashed the Kauto Star / Denman party, has flown under the radar as NTD has wrapped him up in cotton wool, giving him only one run all season. He won the Betfair at Haydock in November with relative ease and has since been off the course. There is no reason to think that he is anything less than the horse he was last year and with question marks over all the other runners, the biggest prize of the National Hunt season looks to be at his mercy.

He jumps, travels and loves the course having won six times there. He has a jockey who knows his way round in Paddy Brennan and is good value at 7/2.

Ryanair Chase – J’y Vole

This one has come a bit out of left field but in an under-par renewal of this 2m5f chase set to be run on Thursday it is primed for a slightly less fancied runner. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old was third in this last year having been badly hampered in running and could go close again. She has not had the greatest season in the world but is consistent and unlike some of the other runners, loves the 2m5f trip. She is 8/1 to take this back to Ireland.

This race could go anywhere though so if you want a real outsider, have a look at Hey Big Spender. He is running at 40/1 and hails from the yard of Colin Tizzard who’s horses are on fire at the moment.

Champion Hurdle – Menorah

I, like many, have been a fan of Menorah ever since he out battled Get Me Out Of Here in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. Hobbs’ six-year-old ticks a lot of the boxes needed for a champion hurdler. He jumps, travels and has guts which he showed last season. The negative is that no horse has won the Champion the year after winning the Supreme since the brilliant Bula in 1971. However, rules are meant to be broken and with the shock withdrawel of favourite Binocular over the weekend, this race has opened up a little bit at Menorah could do the double at 4/1. There are dangers everywhere though. Peddlers Cross is unbeaten in eight and has Festival form while if Hurricane Fly likes the track then everyone could be in trouble. An intriguing contest.

There are so many others with Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme looking good for a big run in the Festival curtain raiser. Thousand Stars could run well at long odds in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, Skipper’s Brig is a firm favourite of one of the Racing Post’s top tipsters, James Pyman, and could go well in the third race on Tuesday, the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase.

There are just so many options that I could be here all day discussing it so I thought I would give you those three as a starter for ten. See how they go and if they run well then why not dip your toe in the water for more…Just promise me one thing – be careful!